Bernanke Announces Economy Is Improving

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Three days after news of a surprise fall in the jobless rate prompted investors to speculate the Fed might move more quickly to raise rates than had been expected, Bernanke said the Fed — the U.S. central bank — was sticking to its pledge to hold benchmark borrowing costs at exceptionally low levels for an “extended period.”

“We still have some ways to go before we can be assured that the recovery will be self-sustaining,” he told the Economic Club of Washington. “Also at issue is whether the recovery will create the large number of jobs that will be needed to materially bring down the unemployment rate.”

A report on Friday showed the U.S. labor market last month turned in its best performance since the economy fell into recession two years ago as the unemployment rate receded slightly from a 26-1/2-year high and job losses slowed sharply.

The data led investors to ramp up bets benchmark U.S. rates would rise by the middle of next year, lifting the dollar to its biggest gain in nearly a year.

However, Bernanke on Monday suggested the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which meets next week to debate policy, would bide its time to let the recovery gather strength. His comments drove the dollar and prices for U.S. government bonds lower, while offering temporary support to stocks.

“Right now we are still looking at the extended period given that conditions remain — low rates of (resource) utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable long term inflation expectations,” he said. “That remains where we are.”

This view was echoed by another top Fed official, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley, speaking at Columbia University in New York on Monday evening.

“The recession now appears to be over, but the economy is still weak and the unemployment rate is much too high,” Dudley said.

“These circumstances underpin the FOMC’s commitment to keeping short-term rates exceptionally low for an extended period.”

FORMIDABLE HEADWINDS

Bernanke said tight credit and the weak job market still posed “formidable headwinds” to recovery, but he said officials would need to consider recent signs that the economy was gaining strength at their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Fed cut rates to near zero a year ago and has pumped more than $1 trillion into the economy to battle a deep recession. Now, analysts are beginning to wonder when it will begin to remove its extraordinary support.

Financial markets will parse the Fed’s policy statement next week closely for any fresh clues, but Bernanke suggested the central bank remains focused on nurturing the recovery.

“He’s being appropriately cautious about the outlook,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The economy is not going to come roaring back.”

While underscoring the recovery’s fragility, both Bernanke and Dudley took pains to argue that worries the Fed’s easy money policies are setting the stage for runaway inflation later are unfounded.

“Will the Federal Reserve’s actions to combat the crisis lead to higher inflation down the road?” Bernanke asked. “The answer is no. The Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so.”

Bernanke said that although the Fed will continue to monitor inflation closely, it appears likely to remain subdued for some time and could in fact move lower.

FED HAS EXIT TOOLS

The challenge the Fed faces in withdrawing its massive support for the economy is not how to do it but when, he said.

The central bank has all the tools it needs, and could raise rates even if its balance sheet — swollen by purchases of mortgage-related debt and longer-term Treasury securities — remains large, Bernanke added.

He said the Fed’s ability to pay interest on the reserves banks hold at the Fed would be “an important tool” to push borrowing costs higher, and said there were a number of ways it could withdraw money from the financial system.

“If necessary, we always have the option of reducing the size of our balance sheet by selling some of our securities,” he said.

The New York Fed’s Dudley also emphasized that while the exit from easy monetary policy will be more complicated than usual due to the array of stimulus the Fed has put in place, he believes the process is “manageable”.

“The fact we have more levers doesn’t mean we will have trouble exiting when the time comes, it just means we have more choices to make,” Dudley said.

OFFICIALS PUSH BACK ON AUDITS

Bernanke, who is in the midst of a contentious Senate confirmation process for a second four-year term as Fed chairman, used his remarks to push back against congressional proposals he argues would hurt the bank.

He praised the contribution the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks make to monetary policy by bringing insight into conditions around the country. Some lawmakers have proposed greater congressional control over those regional banks.

Bernanke and the New York Fed’s Dudley also criticized a congressional proposal to audit Fed monetary policy decisions, saying it could undercut the Fed’s independence.

The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing on Bernanke’s nomination last week, but has not yet set a date for a vote. His current term expires on January 31.

Now We Own A Part Of Citi

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — You now own a big piece of troubled bank Citigroup.

Although some housekeeping issues remain, Citigroup effectively completed its long-awaited plan to turn preferred shares owned by the government into common stock Thursday. That gives U.S. taxpayers a 34% stake in one of the world’s largest financial institutions.

The New York City-based bank said Thursday that it converted a $25 billion preferred share stake the government acquired as part of rescue efforts for the firm taken earlier this year and last fall into common shares.

Facing concerns about its underlying health and ability to endure future losses, Citigroup agreed to the deal with the Treasury Department in late February.

By converting preferred shares into common stock, regulators hope to boost Citigroup’s level of tangible common equity, a widely watched measure of a bank’s ability to withstand losses.

Part of the agreement included the option for other preferred share investors to convert their holdings into common shares as well. About $58 billion worth of preferred and trust preferred securities have been exchanged to common stock as result of the exchange offer, according to the company.

Citigroup has earned a reputation as one of the nation’s most troubled financial institutions. From the time the credit markets began to unravel in late 2007 up until the end of last year, the company lost more than $28 billion.

The bank’s problems subsequently led the government to take a $45 billion stake in Citigroup to help stabilize the bank.

Following the conversion, the government will still own $20 billion in preferred shares on which it is earning an 8% dividend. Although the remaining amount could be converted if Treasury determines more assistance is needed, Citigroup officials have maintained that the company’s position is quite secure.

“Following completion of the exchange offers, Citi will be among the best capitalized banks in the world,” Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit said in a statement about the exchange offer in June.

When the government first announced the stock conversion plans, there were fears about just how far the government would become involved in Citi’s day-to-day operations, perhaps going so far as nationalize the company.

Credit Crisis Persists

You knew things were bad in the credit department, but now there are some new numbers to back it up: We’re collectively about 27% riskier credit bets than we were a decade ago, according to the TransUnion credit bureau. The firm’s national Credit Risk Index for the first quarter of this year clocked in at 127.3 compared to the 1998 start-point of 100. The index is based on the average weighted probability of 90-day delinquencies on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

TransUnion’s global chief scientist Chet Wiermanski didn’t even try to position the latest reading as a green shoot. “ The index remains at an all-time historical high,” he commented, “indicating that delinquencies and foreclosures will continue to rise in the coming months.”

The five states that pose the biggest credit risk, according to TransUnion:

•    Mississippi (Credit Risk Index of 166.45)
•    Texas (162.59)
•    Nevada (158.97)
•    South Carolina (158.76)
•    Louisiana (153.84)

The least risky states:
•    North Dakota (82.02)
•    Minnesota (88.53)
•    Vermont (91.82)
•    South Dakota (94.75)
•    Iowa (95.26)

The high/low credit risk lists might suggest a new Weather Channel indicator: Is there something about cold-weather winter states that engenders better credit management? Okay, okay, what’s really at play is of course something more down to earth, like jobs. All five of the lowest-risk states have unemployment rates below the 9.5% national average.

The worst year-over-year Credit Risk Index changes occurred in poster-child states for mortgage duress: Arizona (up 14.8%), Nevada (up 14.4%) and California (up 13.8%).

You can check out your state’s delinquency rate for auto loans, credit cards and mortgage at TransUnion’s website Even if your personal FICO credit score is sterling, merely being in a state with a high delinquency rate could expose you to more scrutiny if you plan on applying for any credit in the near future.

Cue up the chief scientist one more time:

“It is apparent that many of the states experiencing the highest increases in credit risk are the same when looking at the Credit Risk Index statistic on both a quarterly and yearly basis,” said Wiermanski in the release that accompanied the data. “This leads TransUnion to believe that consumers in these states will experience prolonged systemic difficulties in both their ability to satisfactorily repay their existing credit obligations and in their ability to acquire new credit.”

Ouch. Good luck with your mortgages and credit cards, everybody.

US Trade Gap Declines

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The U.S. trade gap narrowed unexpectedly to $26 billion in May to the lowest reading since November 1999, as exports rose and imports shrank, government data on Friday showed. The Commerce Department said exports increased 1.6% to $123.3 billion, while imports declined by 0.6% to $149.3 billion. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the trade deficit to widen to $30.2 billion in May.

The trade gap in April was revised to $28.8 billion from a previously reported $29.2 billion deficit. May’s import level was the lowest since July 2004 and the 10th straight monthly decline, providing further evidence that the recession-mired United States has diminished as a source of demand for the rest of the world. The auto sector has been hard hit in the economic slowdown and May imports of automotive vehicles and parts slipped to $10.2 billion, the lowest level since March 1996, while auto exports were the lowest since July 1998.

The monthly deficit on goods trade with China grew to $17.5 billion from $16.8 billion in April and was the largest with any single country. But the U.S. trade deficit with other big trading partners declined, falling to $2.8 billion with the European Union in May, for the lowest reading since March 1999, and retreating to $1.9 billion with Japan, which was the lowest since February 1984.

Imported oil cost $51.21 a barrel in May, up from $46.60 in April. The value of crude oil imports in May declined only slightly to $13.4 billion, despite a sharper decline in the quantity of oil actually imported, to 262 million barrels from 293 million in April, the Commerce Department said.

US Consumer Debt Worsens

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Soaring U.S. unemployment and a shrinking economy drove delinquencies on credit card debt and home equity loans to all-time highs in the first quarter as a record number of cash-strapped consumers fell behind on their bills.

Delinquencies on the value of all card debt soared to a record 6.60 percent from 5.52 percent in the fourth quarter as more cardholders relied on plastic to meet day-to-day expenses, the American Bankers Association said.

Late payments on home equity loans rose to 3.52 percent from 3.03 percent, and on home equity lines of credit climbed to 1.89 percent from 1.46 percent.

A broader gauge showing late payments on eight categories of loans rose for a fourth straight quarter to a new record, edging up to 3.23 percent from 3.22 percent. That rate actually understates consumer pain because it excludes credit cards. The ABA tracks loan payments that are at least 30 days late.

“The biggest driver is job losses,” ABA Chief Economist James Chessen said in an interview. “When people lose their jobs or work fewer hours, it makes it that much harder to meet their obligations. Unfortunately, we’re going to see higher job losses in the next year, and I expect elevated delinquencies.”

The ABA represents most large U.S. banks and credit card companies. Tuesday’s data are a bad sign for them as they prepare to report second-quarter results starting next week.

While improved capital markets may boost the bottom lines of some, analysts expect lenders such as Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc, Capital One Financial Corp and American Express Co to suffer higher credit losses, especially in cards.

BRIDGE TO EMPLOYMENT

Borrowers are struggling as the nation’s jobless rate sits at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, with 6.5 million jobs having disappeared since the recession began in December 2007. The Obama administration expects the unemployment rate to hit double digits before declining.

U.S. consumers ended March with $939.6 billion of revolving credit outstanding, a rough approximation of credit card debt, according to Federal Reserve data.

“Consumers tend to rely on credit cards as a bridge to cover their daily needs until they find new jobs,” Chessen said. “It’s taking longer to find those jobs.”

Meanwhile, home prices are down 32.6 percent from their peak in 2006, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices of 20 large metropolitan areas.

The ABA in June said it expects the recession to end this quarter, despite rising unemployment.

The overall ABA delinquency rate includes direct auto, indirect auto, closed-end home equity, home improvement, marine, mobile home, personal, and recreational vehicle loans.

Delinquencies rose to 3.01 percent from 2.03 percent on direct auto loans, to 3.70 percent from 2.96 percent on mobile home loans, to 3.47 percent from 2.88 percent on personal loans, and to 1.52 percent from 1.38 percent on recreational vehicle loans.

Swiss Bank Secrecy Under Fire

ZURICH (Reuters) – Switzerland has vowed to prevent UBS from handing over client information to U.S. authorities, in an attempt to defend bank secrecy, saying a tax case targeting its main bank is souring diplomatic ties.

Wealth management giant UBS is facing a court hearing in Miami next week after refusing to disclose data on 52,000 Americans holders of secret Swiss bank accounts to U.S. tax authorities.

The Swiss Justice Ministry said on Wednesday that Swiss law prevents UBS from handing over client information and the government would seize UBS client data, if necessary, to stop that happening.

The case, which comes amid a global fight against tax cheats supported by the U.S. administration, has damaged the UBS brand and could result in an expensive settlement for the bank at a time when the bank needs to focus on restructuring.

“Switzerland will use its legal authority to ensure that the bank cannot be pressured to transmit the information illegally, including if necessary by issuing an order taking effective control of the data at UBS,” the Swiss government said in a response to U.S. authorities filed in Miami on Tuesday.

The tax litigation is also crucial for the future of the multi-billion dollar wealth management industry and is pushing several offshore banks to force clients to come clean.

A court hearing that will lead to a ruling on the UBS data issue is due to start on July 13. Washington has accused UBS of hiding nearly $15 billion in assets in secret accounts.

The Swiss statement came in response to a filing by the U.S. Justice Department last week asking the Miami court to enforce tax compliance with the full weight of U.S. law.

Although Swiss criminal law prohibits banks passing on client information to foreign authorities, UBS and Switzerland have already made concessions on their treasured bank secrecy.

UBS agreed to pay in February $780 million, admitted wrongdoing and disclosed about 250 client names to avert tax fraud criminal charges the Swiss government said threatened the bank’s survival.

And faced with the threat of possible sanctions from the G20, Switzerland — along with other tax havens — vowed in March to redraft its tax treaties with the United States and other countries and cooperate more on tax evasion.

“INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT”

Switzerland said in its latest court filing it hoped it would not have to take the “extraordinary action” of issuing an order to seize the UBS client data.

“The IRS (Internal Revenue Service) now inappropriately seeks to provoke international conflict through this civil proceeding,” the statement read.

In its brief last week, the Justice Department said that UBS had already acknowledged that its bankers committed “very serious crimes on U.S. soil” and had therefore subjected the bank to the full jurisdiction of U.S. law. “Swiss banking secrecy is not an impenetrable wall,” it said.

Google Challenges Microsoft

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Google Inc. is planning to hit Microsoft Corp. where it hurts by challenging the software giant’s dominance in the world of computer operating systems.

The search firm said late Tuesday that it will begin offering its own operating system, called Chrome, in the second half of 2010.

While Google already offers a host of products that compete with Microsoft, the new operating system is a direct challenge to Microsoft Windows, which is the most widely used operating system in the world.

“Google really can challenge Microsoft, because the proliferation of Web-based applications makes the operating system much less important,” said Zeus Kerravala, analyst at Yankee Group. “As we pave the way towards real Web 2.0, there will be less of a real tie-in to Windows.”

The new system will initially be targeted at netbooks, the company said. Netbooks are small, inexpensive laptop computers used mostly for Internet access.

Google said the new operating system will make use of open source programming, which allows third-party developers to design compatible add-ons. (Think of the applications created for the iPhone or Facebook.)

“We hear a lot from our users, and their message is clear: computers need to get better,” Google said in a statement. Chrome is “our attempt to re-think what operating systems should be.”

The new operating system comes after Google launched its Chrome Internet browser late last year.

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Job Losses Ease But Unemployment Higher

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The unemployment rate hit a 25-year high in April, but there were signs of hope as the monthly job loss total fell to the lowest level in six months.

The Labor Department reported Friday that employers cut 539,000 jobs from payrolls in the month. That’s an improvement from the revised reading of 699,000 that were lost in March, and the best reading since October, when the economy shed 380,000 jobs.

Still, that brings job losses since the start of 2008 to 5.7 million. And even some economists who believe that economic growth and an end to the recession are close at hand project that job losses could continue through the end of the year or into 2010.

Economists had forecast a loss of 600,000 in April, but there had been signs in recent days that the job losses might not be as bad as expected. A reading on private sector employment by payroll services firm ADP showed a big drop in job losses in April, and there has been a steady decline in recent weeks in people filing for first-time unemployment benefits.

There was a 72,000 increase in government jobs, many of them workers hired to conduct the 2010 census. The health services and education sector added 15,000 jobs.

But 72% of private industry sectors reported job losses in the month, although that was an improvement from the nearly 80% that shed jobs in March.

Construction lost another 110,000 jobs while manufacturing shed 149,000 workers and retailers cut staff by 47,000. Business and professional services, a catch-all sector that includes accountants and lawyers that is seen as a sign of overall business hiring, shed 122,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate, based on a separate survey, rose to 8.9% from 8.5% in March, the worst reading since September 1983. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast the rate would rise to 8.9%.

But the unemployment rate, as bad as it was, doesn’t indicate the extent of the pain being felt by job seekers. The report showed 27% of the 13.7 million unemployed Americans have been out of work for more than six months, the highest percentage of long-term unemployed among the overall pool of jobless in the 61 years that reading has been tracked.

Almost one out of six members of the labor force are either unemployed, working part-time when they would prefer to work full-time, or are out of work and have become so discouraged that they did not look for work and thus not counted in the unemployed total. That’s the highest reading in that measure that goes back to 1994.

The Outrage Of BPO’s In Real Estate

A new income opportunity has appeared on the horizon recently for down-and-out real estate agents who are in desperate need of income and this has led to one of the biggest scams in the real estate industry today. A broker price opinion (BPO) is ordered by the bank or mortgage lender who is looking at doing a short sale on a property where the borrower is upside-down on their mortgage and they cannot qualify for (or the bank is not prepared to do) a loan modification. The BPO is done by the Realtor for $40 – $60 (almost doesn’t cover their gas and car expenses) and is used as the basis (for the bank) to negotiate with potential new buyers.

These Realtors are obviously not making money selling real estate and are often some of the most inexperienced individuals in their profession trying to make a buck or two. They sometimes are hoping to create a connection with the bank so that the can get their REO listings for themselves, which are really the only deals being closed right now. So from the getgo they are trying to please the bank which results more often than not in the BPO coming in at a much higher price than the real market value of the property.

The Realtor marketing the property for the owner then gets offers based on the real market price , which in almost all cases is much lower than the infamous BPO. They try and negotiate with the bank, get nowhere, there is no short sale, the bank then forecloses on the property, thinking they can get more than the offer. These important financial decisions being based on a $40 BPO done by someone that is inexperienced.

The property value declines even further as the banks don’t maintain the properties at all after the foreclosure or the original owner, angered by the bank’s posture regarding the short sale, strips the property of all it appliances, the pool pump, the ceiling fans, the water heater and even sometimes the air conditioning unit and wall cabinets, so the house is no longer marketable as no lender will finance properties in this condition.

Can you blame the homeowner? Maybe, but they are going to have to fight for the next 10 years with a foreclosure on their record even though the bank got offers at the real market price. A price calculated by a very experienced professional – the buyer’s Realtor – and often backed up by a real appraisal performed again by a professional appraiser at a cost of around $350. But the bank blindly looks at the $40 BPO!

Here is an example of how such a transaction looks financially:

BPO Value $200,000
Buyer’s Realtor Estimate $165,000 – $175,000
Highest offer submitted $172,000
REO Price 6 months later $125,000
REO sale $115,000

So the bank gets $57,000 less than the original offer six months later. They have the costs of foreclosure (at least $15,000) and then the upkeep of the home they now own (HOA fees, taxes, general maintenance etc.). So all in all they lose approximately $75,000 compared to the original offer all based upon their faith in the unprofessional BPO. Everyone I know in the industry, Realtors, loan officers and appraisers,  are all shaking their heads in disbelief. They are also losing money as the deals they are working with fall through and  don’t pay them a dime but they still have invested their costs.

And yet the government is pumping billions of dollars into these financial institutions, which is coming from the taxpayers who are in turn being screwed and put out on the street by the same banks. HELLO, ANYONE HOME? To make things worse the REO homes that are now in terrible shape are being bought for cash from wealthy investors and not the poor homeowners who now have a foreclosure on their record and cannot get a loan (from the same bank that just screwed them!).

Some of my more savvy clients are looking at some form of recourse against the bank that hardballed them on the sale of their property based upon a $40 BPO. In my view, the government should impose a substantial fine on the banks, which can be based on the difference between the highest original offer the bank chose to decline and the REO price the bank finally receives. At least, the bank should be forced to remove the foreclosure filing with the credit agencies and give some sort of restitution to the original homeowner.

Or the owners of the banks should fire the management that manage this mess and put in people that at least have some semblance of a brain in their head. Oh, yes, but the bank owners are now the government. So should we fire the government?

Author – Colin Buckingham
Global Internet Entrepreneur

Chrysler Files For Chapter 11

WASHINGTON — Chrysler filed for bankruptcy protection Thursday and announced it will temporarily halt most of its vehicle production while it completes a deal with Italian carmaker Fiat in an effort to revive the nation’s ailing third-largest automaker.

The Obama administration said it had long hoped to stave off bankruptcy, but it became clear that a holdout group of creditors wouldn’t budge on proposals to reduce Chrysler’s $6.9 billion in secured debt. Clearing those debts was a needed step for Chrysler to restructure by a government-imposed Thursday deadline.

Chrysler now has “a chance not only to survive but thrive” thanks to the deal with international car company Fiat and loans from the government, President Obama said Thursday.

He said the company’s decision to file for bankrupcy “is not a sign of weakness,” but rather a necessary step that will allow the company to survive.

Chrysler filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York with the hopes of emerging in as little as 60 days under the new partnership with Fiat.